Arthur Hayes Sees Bitcoin Rally Extending to 2026

The cryptocurrency world thrives on bold predictions, and Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX, has once again sparked discussions across financial and crypto circles. Known for his deep market insights and sometimes controversial forecasts, Hayes now suggests that the ongoing Bitcoin bull market may last until 2026, extending far beyond what many traditional cycle analysts expect.

In a recent essay and interviews, Hayes laid out a vision for the global economy and financial markets that could fuel Bitcoin’s rise. His views intertwine macroeconomic shifts, U.S. fiscal policies, the role of stablecoins, and the evolving structure of decentralized finance (DeFi). In this article, we’ll take a closer look at Hayes’ predictions, their potential implications, and why he believes the next few years could be transformative for Bitcoin and digital assets.

Falling Interest Rates and Money Printing as Bullish Catalysts

According to Hayes, the conditions supporting Bitcoin’s continued growth are rooted in traditional macroeconomics. He highlights two central themes:

1. Declining interest rates
2. Increased money printing by central banks

When interest rates fall, borrowing becomes cheaper. This stimulates spending, investment, and demand for risk assets. Historically, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have thrived in low-interest environments, as investors look for higher returns in alternative assets. At the same time, excessive money printing—often framed as “quantitative easing”—leads to more fiat currency circulating in the economy. While this policy is designed to support growth and liquidity, it also devalues traditional currencies over time. Hayes argues that this erodes trust in government-backed money and nudges investors toward decentralized, scarce assets like Bitcoin. “Unlike past cycles where Bitcoin followed a clear four-year halving pattern, we’re already deep in this bull run,” Hayes explained. “This time, monetary policy is likely to stretch the rally much longer than people expect.”

Why This Cycle Could Be Different

Historically, Bitcoin has followed a four-year cycle linked to the halving events that reduce block rewards. Each halving tightens supply, and historically, it has triggered parabolic bull runs followed by sharp corrections. But Hayes disputes the rigid reliance on this model. He believes that global macroeconomic conditions—particularly U.S. fiscal and monetary policy—will override simple cycle theories. Instead of assuming that Bitcoin’s rally ends 18–24 months after the 2024 halving, Hayes believes the current bull phase could last until 2026. That’s nearly two years longer than traditional cycle theorists predict. His forecast is not based purely on Bitcoin fundamentals, but rather on how governments, especially the U.S., handle mounting debt and economic challenges.

The Rise of Hyperliquid and DeFi Investments

Hayes is not just looking at Bitcoin. He also emphasizes the importance of investing in projects that generate steady cash flow. One project he highlights is Hyperliquid, a decentralized exchange that focuses on on-chain trading solutions. According to Hayes, the demand for decentralized trading is growing, particularly as regulatory scrutiny on centralized exchanges increases. He believes Hyperliquid has the potential to become a major global exchange and even suggests it could deliver a 100x return by 2028 if adoption continues at its current pace. This reflects Hayes’ broader investment philosophy: look for blockchain projects with real utility and sustainable business models, rather than speculative tokens with little long-term value.

Bitcoin Price Predictions

When it comes to Bitcoin price targets, Hayes avoids giving a single fixed number. Instead, he outlines a range of possible scenarios:

• $150,000 as a conservative bullish outcome
• $175,000 as a realistic target if macroeconomic conditions align
• $200,000 or more in the event of aggressive money printing and liquidity expansion

Unlike some analysts who set rigid price targets, Hayes insists he will remain flexible, tracking macroeconomic developments closely. “I won’t set a fixed selling point,” he noted. “I’ll watch how money-printing expectations evolve before deciding when to take profits.” This approach underscores Hayes’ belief that Bitcoin is less about cycles and more about global monetary flows.

Trump, Stimulus, and the 2026 Outlook

Another intriguing element of Hayes’ outlook is the political dimension. He speculates that Donald Trump could roll out a major economic stimulus program in mid-2026. Such a move, Hayes argues, would flood the market with even more liquidity, potentially extending the bull market for Bitcoin and other risk assets. While political forecasts are inherently uncertain, Hayes’ scenario paints a picture of how policy decisions could directly influence crypto markets. If stimulus coincides with already declining interest rates and aggressive money printing, the conditions for Bitcoin could be “explosively bullish.”

Patience as a Strategy for Bitcoin Investors

For everyday investors, Hayes’ core advice is simple: be patient. While stock markets and gold may also reach new highs, Hayes believes Bitcoin’s bull market still has several strong years ahead. Investors who panic-sell early could miss out on significant upside. He encourages market participants to avoid over-trading, stay calm during volatility, and remember that the larger macro trend favors digital assets.

Arthur Hayes’ prediction that the Bitcoin bull market may extend until 2026 is not just a bold call—it’s a vision shaped by global macroeconomic forces, U.S. fiscal policy, and the rapid evolution of digital finance.

From falling interest rates to money printing, from the rise of stablecoins to the growth of DeFi projects like Hyperliquid, Hayes paints a picture of a financial world where Bitcoin thrives as traditional systems struggle. His suggested price targets—$150,000 to $200,000—reflect optimism grounded in structural trends rather than speculative hype. For investors, the message is clear: patience and strategic positioning could be the keys to capturing the full potential of this extended bull run. Whether or not all of Hayes’ predictions come true, his insights highlight the powerful intersection of politics, economics, and technology shaping the future of finance.

Disclaimer: CryptopianNews shares this for learning and info only. It’s not meant to be financial or investment advice. Crypto markets change a lot and move quickly. Investing in them can be risky. You should always look into things yourself. Talk to a trained financial advisor before making any choices about investing.