- Crypto analyst, Michaël van de Poppe, shares insights on the volatility and unpredictability of the cryptocurrency market.
- Van de Poppe, despite suffering a 50% portfolio loss, believes the altcoin season is nearing, challenging traditional four-year cycles.
- He argues that Bitcoin is now a mature asset, and altcoins have never had such a deep bear market.
- Van de Poppe’s analysis reflects his experience of multiple cycles and downturns, viewing the loss as evidence of a turning point.
The cryptocurrency market has always been known for its volatility, unpredictability, and sudden shifts in investor sentiment. Over the past few months, digital assets have once again been caught in turbulent waters, with both Bitcoin and altcoins experiencing sharp swings. Yet, amid this chaos, one well-known crypto analyst, Michaël van de Poppe, has shared insights that have sparked debate across the crypto community.
Van de Poppe admitted to suffering significant personal losses, with his portfolio down by more than 50%, but he believes that the tides are shifting and that the long-awaited altcoin season may be just around the corner. His contrarian perspective challenges long-held assumptions about the four-year cycle in Bitcoin and altcoin markets, raising critical questions about the future of digital assets.
Breaking Away from the Traditional Four-Year Cycle
For years, the crypto industry has operated on a widely accepted belief that Bitcoin moves in predictable four-year cycles. This theory stems from the Bitcoin halving event, which reduces mining rewards approximately every four years, theoretically creating supply shocks that push prices higher. Historically, major bull markets have followed these halvings, reinforcing the narrative. However, Van de Poppe strongly disagrees with this framework. According to him, the four-year cycle is outdated in the current economic and financial climate.
“The cycle is broken. Bitcoin is now a mature asset. ETF money is not tied to four years. This run is unlike the others. Bitcoin hit its all-time high before the halving. Altcoins have never had such a deep bear market,” he explained. By highlighting the role of institutional adoption and the arrival of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), Van de Poppe emphasizes that new capital entering the market no longer depends on cyclical retail-driven hype. Instead, large-scale investments from institutional players have disrupted the traditional rhythm.
The Pain of a 50% Portfolio Loss
What makes Van de Poppe’s analysis particularly striking is his willingness to share his personal financial setback. He admitted that his portfolio has dropped more than half in value during this prolonged downturn. Despite this significant loss, he remains optimistic about the market’s future, especially for altcoins. His stance may appear contradictory at first, but it reflects the perspective of a seasoned crypto analyst who has endured multiple cycles and downturns. Instead of viewing the loss as a failure, Van de Poppe interprets it as evidence of a turning point. In his view, altcoins are in their longest-ever bear market, and such deep corrections often precede powerful rebounds.
Altcoins and the 20-Day EMA: Signs of Life
One of Van de Poppe’s strongest arguments in favor of an upcoming altcoin season is based on technical analysis. He pointed out that Ethereum (ETH) has recently moved above its 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) on the daily chart — something that has not occurred since the beginning of the current bear market. “This was the first breakout since the start of the bear market. The last time we saw this was September 2019,” he stated. This movement is significant because the 20-day EMA is often used by traders to gauge short-term momentum. A breakout above this indicator is typically viewed as an early bullish signal. According to Van de Poppe, the same technical shift is beginning to appear in other altcoins, suggesting that the market could be preparing for a broader bullish reversal.
Shifting Away from Time-Based Strategies
Another crucial takeaway from Van de Poppe’s analysis is his call to abandon time-based investing strategies. Instead of waiting for cycles or relying on the calendar, he argues that successful investment decisions should be guided by price action, risk management, and signals. “Using time will cause big mistakes. The plan should use price, signals, and risk,” he emphasized. This shift in mindset challenges the old “buy-and-hold until the next halving” approach that many retail investors follow. Instead, Van de Poppe advocates for a more flexible strategy that adapts to changing market conditions.
Macro Factors: Rate Cuts and Liquidity Injections
Beyond technical analysis, Van de Poppe also highlighted the impact of macroeconomic policies on cryptocurrency markets. With central banks around the world grappling with inflation and slowing growth, he expects interest rate cuts and renewed quantitative easing (money printing) in the near future. “Cuts are coming, printing will start. A lot of money will flow into crypto. The four-year cycle is not the guide,” he predicted. If his forecast holds true, the combination of lower borrowing costs and increased liquidity could push institutional and retail investors back into risk assets, including Bitcoin and altcoins.
A Warning: The Last Easy Cycle?
Despite his optimism about the near-term market outlook, Van de Poppe issued a sobering warning. He suggested that this upcoming cycle could represent the last easy opportunity for investors to make outsized gains. “The next Bitcoin peak will also be the top for everything. After that comes the biggest economic depression ever,” he warned. This dramatic statement reflects broader concerns about the global financial system’s fragility. Mounting debt levels, geopolitical instability, and structural weaknesses in global economies could eventually lead to a severe crisis. If that happens, the role of cryptocurrencies might be redefined entirely.
The Emotional Rollercoaster of Investing
Van de Poppe’s candid admission about his portfolio loss resonates with many retail investors who have faced similar struggles during this extended bear market. Crypto markets are not only financially demanding but also emotionally exhausting. His transparency serves as a reminder that even experienced analysts are not immune to downturns. Yet, his continued belief in the potential of altcoins underscores the importance of resilience and long-term vision in such a volatile asset class.
A Turning Point or Another Trap?
The insights shared by Michaël van de Poppe highlight the complexity and evolving nature of cryptocurrency markets. His prediction of an upcoming altcoin season, despite a painful 50% portfolio loss, reflects both conviction and risk-taking — qualities that define seasoned investors. By challenging the traditional four-year cycle, emphasizing price and risk over time, and pointing to macro liquidity shifts, Van de Poppe paints a picture of a market on the edge of transformation. Yet, his warning about a potential future economic depression adds a layer of caution for investors. As crypto markets navigate this uncertain path, the central question remains: Will this indeed be the turning point for altcoins, or will it prove to be another false dawn in a market notorious for surprises? Only time will tell, but for now, the anticipation of a potential altcoin bull run has reignited excitement among investors searching for the next opportunity in digital assets.
Disclaimer: CryptopianNews shares this for learning and info only. It’s not meant to be financial or investment advice. Crypto markets change a lot and move quickly. Investing in them can be risky. You should always look into things yourself. Talk to a trained financial advisor before making any choices about investing.
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