- Crypto analyst Joao Wedson suggests Bitcoin (BTC) may have potential for record highs despite recent market strength.
- Wedson utilizes the “Max Intersect SMA Model” to indicate that BTC has not reached its cycle top, which previously signaled peaks in 2017 and 2021.
- Bitcoin is currently in the “distribution phase,” characterized by sideways price movement and reduced risk-reward dynamics.
In a revealing update from crypto analyst and data-science CEO Joao Wedson of Alphractal, the flagship cryptocurrency Bitcoin (BTC) might still have a major run ahead—even after its recent strength. Wedson, well known for his on-chain modelling, argues that BTC has not yet reached its cycle top and that fresh all-time highs may be on the horizon.
“Max Intersect SMA” Signals Still Favourable
Wedson points to the firm’s proprietary “Max Intersect SMA Model,” which tracks simple moving averages intersecting across historical cycle highs. According to him, this model has delivered accurate signals at the 2017 and 2021 tops—so the current reading demands attention.
“The last time I talked about this model, BTC climbed from $60,000 to $62,000,” Wedson said. “If it gets close to $68,000, that could be the day a new record happens.”
His claim: when this intersect model lines up, we tend to see meaningful market peaks. Analysts tracking this model note that it suggested four months of upside after the $60k region—and although many expected a peak, the model hasn’t yet triggered for the current cycle.
Indeed, reports indicate that Wedson believes the model still has timing left. One write-up said: “The price of Bitcoin could still have some time to run up to a new high.” In addition, Wedson’s work highlights broader on-chain momentum: long-term holder wallets are showing renewed activity, which historically has preceded major rallies.
Market Phase: “Distribution”
Wedson describes BTC as currently being in the distribution phase of its four-year cycle. In market-cycle theory this is the stage after accumulation and markup and before final euphoria and blow-off. During distribution:
- Price may move sideways, consolidating rather than racing upward.
- Market participants look for liquidity both above and below current price—meaning traders may wait for easier exits or entries.
- The risk-reward dynamics shift: upside is still possible, but the potential gain is often smaller relative to risk.
This is consistent with Wedson’s comments that while many analysts focus on macro signals like liquidity, interest-rate curves or monetary policy, those don’t always reflect where the crypto market actually goes next. In his view, the price action and on-chain signals matter more than macro noise. He stressed that the risk-reward isn’t as attractive as it was in 2022 or early 2023, when valuations were lower and upside potential felt greater. Many investors now approach with caution and a longer timeline.
Big Target
Perhaps the most attention-grabbing part of Wedson’s commentary is the target range for BTC’s potential all-time high: between $143,000 and $146,000. This is rooted in the model’s projection for a perfect peak, based on historical cycle length, amplitude and structural support levels—not just wild speculation. He emphasises that this is not a simple guess but stems from data analysis and modelling. His caveat: reaching that range will take time, and the path will probably be less dramatic than past cycles given the different market environment (e.g., broader institutional involvement, more maturity, fewer speculative newbies).
Final Thoughts
While bullish narratives often dominate crypto media, Wedson’s approach is more data-driven than hype-driven. His projection of $143,000-$146,000 as a potential peak for Bitcoin highlights that he sees further upside—but also underscores that the market is maturing and changing. The distribution phase is less glamorous than the markup phase, but it can still yield significant results if navigated smartly. For investors, that translates into a dual strategy: maintain optimism about the possibility of fresh highs, but ground your expectations in the reality of a slower, more measured cycle ahead. The key is to remain patient, disciplined, and aware of both upside and risks.
Disclaimer: CryptopianNews shares this for learning and info only. It’s not meant to be financial or investment advice. Crypto markets change a lot and move quickly. Investing in them can be risky. You should always look into things yourself. Talk to a trained financial advisor before making any choices about investing.
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