- Tom Lee and Arthur Hayes, co-founders of BitMEX, have a bullish thesis for 10K Ethereum, predicting it could reach $10,000 to $12,000 by the end of the year.
- Despite recent market turbulence, they view the current price action as a transition into price discovery at a new elevated range.
- A move from ~$4,100 to $10,000 in under three months would require extraordinary follow-through, institutional capital, and favorable macro conditions.
In the world of cryptocurrency, predictions are always under scrutiny—but two heavyweight voices are sticking to a remarkably bullish thesis for 10K Ethereum. Tom Lee, chair of BitMine and former FundStrat strategist, and Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, have doubled down on their projection that ETH could reach $10,000 to $12,000 by the end of the year, despite recent market turbulence. This renewed confidence comes as Ethereum recently broke above its all-time high from 2021—only to see a sharp pullback in subsequent weeks. Still, Lee and Hayes describe the current price action not as a bubble bursting, but as a transition into price discovery at a new elevated range.
Rebreaking the Record and the Pullback
Earlier this year, Ethereum made headlines as it reclaimed and slightly surpassed its 2021 all-time high near $4,900. That rally raised expectations, only for ETH to later experience steep declines—most notably at the end of September and again in recent weeks. At the time of their latest comments, ETH was trading around $4,100—meaning a climb to $10,000 would require a ~142% gain. Lee views the past few months not as a capitulation but as consolidation after a breakout: “Ethereum has moved sideways since 2021,” Lee noted, arguing that the recent break above the multi-year range is not an ending, but a step in the journey toward discovering a new price level. In his view, ETH’s recapture of its 2021 highs was not the apex—it was a launching pad. Hayes echoes this view. At the same Bankless podcast where Lee laid out his thesis, Hayes reaffirmed his own $10,000 target and said he would “stay consistent” with it.
Why $10K? Lee & Hayes’ Rationale
1. Base Formation & Price Discovery Mentality
Both Lee and Hayes describe the period from 2021 to 2025 as one of base-building—a phase in which the market digests prior gains and search for equilibrium. Lee suggests that breaking out from that base is not a blow-off top, but the start of a new range: “Ether going to $12,000 wouldn’t be a ‘blow-off top,’ it will just be price discovery at a new level,” Lee said. By this logic, the recent volatility is part of the process—not the end.
2. Institutional Demand & “Treasury Strategy”
Lee’s firm BitMine is aggressively accumulating ETH. In fact, BitMine has launched a strategy akin to what MicroStrategy did with Bitcoin: turning ETH holdings into a core treasury asset. BitMine has reportedly held more than 2 million ETH, valued at several billions of dollars, reinforcing the narrative of heavy institutional conviction. Lee argues that if companies adopt ETH as a treasury asset, as they have with Bitcoin, then the mathematics of supply absorption would drive the price upward—potentially toward $30,000 in some scenarios.
Can $10K Really Happen in Months?
Yes, but it’s ambitious. A move from ~$4,100 to $10,000 in under three months would require extraordinary follow-through, institutional capital, and favorable macro conditions. Lee and Hayes treat $10,000 as a conservative lower bound in their frameworks, rather than a ceiling. Lee’s tendency to paint higher targets (e.g. $12,000, $15,000, or even $62,000 in longer-term models) suggests he sees $10,000 as just one milestone in a potential multi-leg rally. Hayes, too, has flirted with upside extensions beyond $10,000 in favorable cycles. However, the shorter the timeframe, the higher the risk. If any key layer—technical, macro, on-chain—stumbles, it might curtail upside before $10,000 is reached.
What Investors Should Watch
- Breakout Above Resistance: A clean, high-volume break above $4,500–$4,600 would validate bullish momentum.
- Support Holds: The $3,800–$4,200 zone is critical. If that gives way, this thesis weakens materially.
- Institutional Flows: Continued accumulation by treasuries or funds will lend weight to the $10K narrative.
- Macro & Interest Rates: If central banks tighten or credit dries, risk assets like crypto could suffer.
- Regulatory Clarity: Favorable rules around Ethereum, staking, or tokenization could act as catalysts.
Final Thoughts
Tom Lee and Arthur Hayes are doubling down on their conviction that Ethereum can reach $10,000–$12,000 by the end of the year, framing the recent retracements as part of a natural process of price discovery after a multi-year base. Their thesis is powered by institutional accumulation, strong on-chain indicators, and a structural argument around ETH’s role in DeFi, stablecoins, and Web3 infrastructure. That said, the journey from ~$4,100 to $10,000 is steep and fraught with potential pitfalls: regulatory shifts, macro instability, network execution risks, or simply a shift in investor sentiment. This isn’t a guaranteed path, but rather an aggressive target backed by bold conviction. For traders and observers, the coming weeks will be pivotal. If ETH can seize control above key resistance with volume and maintain support below, the optimism of Lee and Hayes may begin to look prescient rather than daring. Until then, volatility and hedged positioning may continue to dominate the narrative.
Disclaimer: CryptopianNews shares this for learning and info only. It’s not meant to be financial or investment advice. Crypto markets change a lot and move quickly. Investing in them can be risky. You should always look into things yourself. Talk to a trained financial advisor before making any choices about investing.
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