- Benjamin Cowen, a renowned crypto analyst, predicts an “altseason” for altcoins if three key conditions are met.
- He argues that Ethereum needs to hit a new all-time high, which is a pre-condition for a significant altcoin upswing.
- Cowen suggests that if Ethereum remains below its former peaks, the broader altcoin market may lack the structural lift to launch into “altseason.”
Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen—who previously forecast the October downturn in digital-asset markets—now says that an “altseason” might be just around the corner, provided three key conditions fall into place. In an in-depth discussion on the Milk Road Macro show with host John Gillen, Cowen laid out his thesis: the next big rally may lie with altcoins—but only if the timing and structure align correctly.
Who is Benjamin Cowen
Benjamin Cowen isn’t just another analyst in the crowded crypto space. With a background in engineering and an analytical approach to on-chain data, he has built a reputation for calling major cycle turns and discussing metrics that matter—rather than hype.
- Earlier this month, Cowen was featured in a wide-spread roundup for having correctly anticipated the sharp drop in crypto markets in October.
- Now, he’s turning his focus to what could come after the crash—specifically, how the next surge in crypto might look different from what many expect.
Given his track record, his views are being closely watched. Whether one fully agrees or not, his framework provides a compelling lens to evaluate where we are in the cycle.
The three signals for “altseason” Cowen is highlighting
1. Ethereum Needs a New All-Time High
Cowen asserts that ETH breaking above its previous all-time high is a pre-condition for a meaningful altcoin upswing. He notes that in past cycles, major altcoin rallies have followed, not preceded, Ethereum hitting fresh highs. In his words: “We need Ethereum to hit $5,000 for a new all-time high … big market moves … start after Ethereum breaks its old records, not before.” In short: if Ethereum remains below its former peaks, the broader altcoin market may lack the structural lift to launch into “altseason.”
2. Bitcoin Must Rally + Dominance Must Rise
Cowen argues that for Ethereum to make its move, Bitcoin must first produce a new high, which in turn increases its market-cap share (sometimes referred to as “Bitcoin dominance” or BTC.D). He explains: “Bitcoin has to rise first. … In order to have altseason, Ethereum must reach that $ 5,000 level. … Bitcoin dominance has to first go up, because it implies Bitcoin going to an all-time high.” Why is this important? According to Cowen, when Bitcoin dominance climbs, it signals that money is flowing into crypto via the safest, largest-cap asset—Bitcoin. That sets the stage for capital to rotate later into Ethereum and then into smaller altcoins.
3. The Market Must Align — Don’t Wish for Bitcoin Dominance to Drop
Here’s the provocative part: Cowen cautions against hoping for the dominance of Bitcoin to decline. Instead, he says the smarter play is to see Bitcoin strength first. “I don’t think it makes sense for people to sit around and root for Bitcoin dominance to go down. If you truly want an altseason, then the only way it’s going to happen is if Bitcoin/USD goes to an all-time high in the next couple of months, and Bitcoin dominance goes up with it.” In short: The sequence matters. According to this framework, altcoins don’t start blasting until after Bitcoin has firmly moved upward and dominance has turned upward or held strong. Without that, investing in smaller-cap coins may be premature.
Where are we now?
At the time of Cowen’s remarks:
- Bitcoin trades around $108,091, down about 2.7 % in the past day.
- Ethereum trades near $3,879, also down about 2.7 % in the recent session.
- Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) is approximately 59 %.
Putting these figures into Cowen’s lens:
- Ethereum has not yet pushed to the $5,000 mark he identifies as key for altseason.
- Bitcoin is strong, but the dominance level is still well below historical peaks that preceded previous alt-cycles.
- The market framework suggests we may still be in the “pre-altseason” period—waiting for the trigger sequence to align.
Final thoughts on the near-term outlook
All told, Benjamin Cowen’s framework offers a structured and disciplined way to anticipate when the next significant altcoin phase might begin. Rather than chasing random coins or reacting to hype, his model suggests that the big two—Bitcoin and Ethereum—must lead, and only then will the broader altcoin market likely follow in earnest. For investors, the takeaway is clear: focus on tracking the engine of the market (BTC and ETH and market dominance) and then consider increasing exposure to altcoins when the signal lights turn green. If you jump in too early—before those structural conditions are met—you risk getting caught in a “false start.” The coming weeks may prove critical. If Ethereum approaches its breakout level and Bitcoin dominance re-expands, the stage may be set. If not, we may simply remain in a wait-and-see phase, rather than full-blown altseason.
Disclaimer: CryptopianNews shares this for learning and info only. It’s not meant to be financial or investment advice. Crypto markets change a lot and move quickly. Investing in them can be risky. You should always look into things yourself. Talk to a trained financial advisor before making any choices about investing.
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