Bitcoin Illiquid Supply Could Surge to 8.3M

A new Fidelity report says Bitcoin Illiquid Supply Could Reach 8.3 Million by 2032, impacting global demand, scarcity, and BTC’s future value.
Long-term holders and public companies are the main drivers of Bitcoin illiquidity.
Long-term holders have kept their Bitcoin unmoved for at least seven years, reducing the number of BTC available for active trading.
Public companies hold significant Bitcoin reserves, specifically those with at least 1,000 BTC in their treasury.

Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory is drawing fresh attention from global investors after a new Fidelity report forecasted that nearly 42% of its total supply may become “illiquid” by 2032. This trend, driven largely by long-term holders and public companies steadily accumulating BTC, could play a pivotal role in shaping the cryptocurrency’s scarcity and price dynamics over the coming decade.

Bitcoin’s Illiquid Supply

In traditional finance, liquidity refers to how easily an asset can be bought or sold without affecting its market price. When Bitcoin enters “illiquid supply,” it means those coins are held in wallets with little to no spending history, reducing the number of BTC available for active trading. Fidelity’s latest analysis highlights two main drivers of Bitcoin illiquidity:

Long-Term Holders (LTHs): Investors who have kept their Bitcoin unmoved for at least seven years.
Public Companies: Firms that hold significant Bitcoin reserves, specifically those with at least 1,000 BTC in their treasury.

Together, these groups have consistently accumulated Bitcoin, removing it from circulation and potentially tightening supply in the broader market.

Fidelity’s Key Forecasts

According to the report, both groups could collectively control over 6 million BTC by the end of 2025, representing more than 28% of the cryptocurrency’s total fixed supply of 21 million coins. This projection emphasizes a structural shift in Bitcoin ownership toward entities unlikely to sell frequently. By extending this trend, Fidelity estimates that around 8.3 million BTC could be locked up in illiquid wallets by 2032. That would equal 42% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply, significantly reducing availability on exchanges.

Why 8.3 Million BTC Matters

For context, Bitcoin’s circulating supply stood at roughly 19.8 million BTC in Q2 2025. If 42% of that pool becomes illiquid within the next seven years, market participants may face increasing scarcity. As history has shown, when supply tightens while demand remains steady or increases, prices often see upward pressure.

The Role of Long-Term Holders

One of the most consistent forces in Bitcoin’s ecosystem has been the resilience of long-term holders. Since 2016, this group has not reduced its share of supply, demonstrating remarkable patience and confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term value proposition. Unlike short-term traders, long-term holders are typically immune to market volatility. Their steady conviction removes large amounts of BTC from circulation, amplifying scarcity effects. This behavior aligns with Bitcoin’s reputation as “digital gold,” where investors prefer to store value for extended periods rather than actively trade.

Public Companies and Institutional Adoption

Public companies are playing an increasingly influential role in Bitcoin’s ecosystem. Fidelity notes that 105 public firms now collectively hold more than 969,000 BTC, representing approximately 4.61% of all Bitcoin in existence. These companies, often subject to shareholder scrutiny and regulatory oversight, have generally displayed long-term commitment. Notably, the group has only reduced holdings once in the past four years — during Q2 2022, amid broader market turbulence. This suggests that corporate treasuries view Bitcoin less as a speculative asset and more as a strategic reserve, strengthening the case for sustained illiquidity.

What Happens If Whales Sell?

While illiquid supply strengthens Bitcoin’s scarcity narrative, the market is not immune to sudden shifts. The Fidelity report raises a critical question: what if whales — entities holding massive amounts of BTC — decide to sell? In the last 30 days alone, Bitcoin whales liquidated nearly $12.7 billion worth of BTC, marking the largest sell-off since mid-2022. This coincided with a modest 2% decline in Bitcoin’s price, according to CoinGecko data.

Although whales selling introduces short-term volatility, historical patterns suggest that long-term holders and institutional buyers quickly absorb such shocks. The presence of consistent accumulators, such as corporations and seven-year holders, helps stabilize supply-and-demand dynamics even amid temporary sell pressure.

Scarcity as a Price Catalyst

Bitcoin’s fixed cap of 21 million coins is one of its most defining features. Unlike fiat currencies, which central banks can print in unlimited quantities, Bitcoin’s supply is predetermined and cannot be altered. This makes the concept of illiquidity even more powerful. When a large portion of circulating BTC becomes inaccessible for trading, the available pool shrinks. If adoption continues to grow, demand will be competing for fewer coins, potentially driving prices higher. Fidelity’s forecast implies that by 2032, less than 60% of Bitcoin’s supply could remain actively tradable.

Fidelity’s prediction that 8.3 million BTC could become illiquid by 2032 underscores a crucial narrative: Bitcoin is evolving into a scarce, long-term asset held by committed investors and corporations. While whale sell-offs and regulatory risks could inject volatility, the broader trend points to tightening supply and strengthening scarcity. For investors, traders, and policymakers alike, understanding Bitcoin’s illiquidity is essential to anticipating its future role in the global economy.

Disclaimer: CryptopianNews shares this for learning and info only. It’s not meant to be financial or investment advice. Crypto markets change a lot and move quickly. Investing in them can be risky. You should always look into things yourself. Talk to a trained financial advisor before making any choices about investing.

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